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Big Boost For Cong & Rahul At A Critical Time
Will motivate cadre ahead of battles with BJP in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Control of a resource-rich state is a boost for the party whose claim to lead anti-BJP effort has been consolidated. Rahul may be played up as alternative to Modi in 2024 polls
Engine Failure:
BJP’s debacle has exposed limits of appeal of its ‘double-engine’ plank, bringing home the fact that for it to succeed both ‘engines’ need to work
Muslim Consolidation:
The community rallied behind Congress, which with tactical finesse ensured there was no rival mobilisation at the other end of the spectrum. In contrast, the PM’s effort to rally the majority community against Cong’s promise to ban Bajrang Dal did not work. The strong Muslim support is a positive development for Cong from the Lok Sabha polls point of view
Push For Hindu Consolidation:
Cong’s success will encourage counter-moves for Hindu consolidation. Pressure for conducting caste based census will increase. BJP may have to take a fresh look at its own playbook, with a section sure to argue against halfway houses that result in consolidation of Muslims without ensuring similar joining of ranks at the other end
Blow To Third Front?
Their post-result remarks may not suggest so, but some of the opposition players may not exactly be celebrating Cong’s emphatic win. They will find it difficult to dislodge its claim to lead the anti-BJP bloc in 2024
Inflation:
Costly LPG cylinders hurt BJP by enhancing appeal of Cong’s 5 guarantees. It was also a factor why BJP’s hopes of gains among beneficiaries of central welfare schemes did not materialise. Although the Modi govt has handled the price situation post-Ukraine conflict well, it will need to be more alert ahead of the coming elections. Karnataka shows that when fused with anti-incumbency, it can acquire lethal proportions
Populist Promises
The defeat may lead BJP to consider fresh counter-measures in response to freebies unleashed by rivals. If anything, the promises may have more appeal in states not as rich as Karnataka. The LS campaign is sure to see the tussle between handouts and the promise of long-term development intensifying, with Cong and others seeking to use the opposition to ‘revdis’ to amplify their charge of ‘crony capitalism’
Over-Centralisation?
It was seen as BJP’s strength, but these elections serve up a reminder that it can turn into a weakness.
The ‘centralisation’ of BJP helped overcome weaknesses like lack of ambition, factional feuds, and often an unwillingness to match the aggression of rivals. But the Karnataka loss is sure to generate debate over whether it has also resulted in import of the ‘Congress system’ and its de?ciencies: enfeeblement of state leaders, loss of local initiative, absence of honest feedback, and vulnerability to the charge of domination by outsiders. It also leaves the party overdependent on the PM .
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