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MUMBAI: India is all set to witness a second round of unseasonal rains, beginning early this week. These rains can be termed as pre-monsoon showers, which have begun before schedule this year, courtesy increasing heat stress across the country, meteorologists have said.
Pre-Monsoon weather activities start making an appearance by the second half of March. According to scientists, increasing temperatures as early as in February have led to formation of local weather systems before time. In fact, if the warming continues, these convective systems will continue to form at frequent intervals on account of increased humidity levels, triggering more freak weather events. These variations in climate systems can be attributed to climate change, they have said.
Meteorologists are predicting this spell to be a prolonged one, covering parts of Central, East and parts of South India. Northern plains would also see some precipitation but on the lighter side. Rains are likely to be accompanied with thunder showers, thunderstorms, hail storms and lightning strikes. With this, the threat of crop damage looms large over the standing crops in the fields, especially in Interior Maharashtra, Telangana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, they have warned.
“The upcoming spell will be a result of interaction among multiple weather systems. As per the climate models, twin cyclonic circulations are likely to form over East Madhya Pradesh and over Telangana and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh, respectively. A trough is likely to form between these two systems. Both the systems would become more marked due to moisture feed from Arabian Sea as well as Bay of Bengal on the other side. Besides, an active Western Disturbance is likely to travel through Western Himalayas during the same time. All these systems together will lead to widespread weather activity over central, eastern, and southern parts of the country between March 13-18.
While Northern plains would mostly escape the hazardous activity, South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and North Karnataka will witness the fury of lightning strikes and thunderstorms. Hailstorm is also likely over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on March 15-16, along with high velocity winds,” the analysis of forecasts and reports by weather scientists made by Climate Trends has said. India has already been witnessing above average temperatures this winter season, with December and February being the hottest since 1901. Several research and studies have. been warning of the increasing heat stress due to global warming.
“These weather activities have started a bit early in the season. Usually, pre-Monsoon activities commence during the second half of March. Also, rainfall activities during this season are confined to early morning or later afternoons, but such prolonged spells are rare. This season, the abnormal temperatures have triggered multiple weather systems across several parts of the country. There is already a trough which is running through central parts. It will get more marked with a Western Disturbance which would start affecting the region by March 12. This is a clear example of what kind of climate impacts can be expected with global warming. As the global mean temperatures continue to rise, we would see more of such weather activities at frequent intervals on account of increasing heat stress,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
Growth of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly doubling CO2, is related to the rise in global temperature estimated at an average of 1.5 °C. An increase in the greenhouse gases in pre-monsoon season may deal with excess heat and humidity with uncomfortable conditions throughout the day and night.
“Climate change and global warming are known to have significant impacts on the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and heatwaves. The warmer temperatures resulting from global warming can cause more evaporation, leading to more moisture in the air and heavier rainfall events. Furthermore, climate change can contribute to the formation of localised weather systems, such as thunderstorms and hailstorms, through the increased energy and moisture in the atmosphere. These weather systems can cause significant damage to crops, resulting in economic losses for farmers and food shortages for communities. Therefore, it is essential to take actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce our carbon footprint to prevent further global warming and its associated consequences. This includes implementing sustainable practices in agriculture, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and investing in renewable energy sources,” said Anjal Prakash, Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and IPCC Author.
Pre-Monsoon weather activities start making an appearance by the second half of March. According to scientists, increasing temperatures as early as in February have led to formation of local weather systems before time. In fact, if the warming continues, these convective systems will continue to form at frequent intervals on account of increased humidity levels, triggering more freak weather events. These variations in climate systems can be attributed to climate change, they have said.
Meteorologists are predicting this spell to be a prolonged one, covering parts of Central, East and parts of South India. Northern plains would also see some precipitation but on the lighter side. Rains are likely to be accompanied with thunder showers, thunderstorms, hail storms and lightning strikes. With this, the threat of crop damage looms large over the standing crops in the fields, especially in Interior Maharashtra, Telangana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, they have warned.
“The upcoming spell will be a result of interaction among multiple weather systems. As per the climate models, twin cyclonic circulations are likely to form over East Madhya Pradesh and over Telangana and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh, respectively. A trough is likely to form between these two systems. Both the systems would become more marked due to moisture feed from Arabian Sea as well as Bay of Bengal on the other side. Besides, an active Western Disturbance is likely to travel through Western Himalayas during the same time. All these systems together will lead to widespread weather activity over central, eastern, and southern parts of the country between March 13-18.
While Northern plains would mostly escape the hazardous activity, South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and North Karnataka will witness the fury of lightning strikes and thunderstorms. Hailstorm is also likely over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on March 15-16, along with high velocity winds,” the analysis of forecasts and reports by weather scientists made by Climate Trends has said. India has already been witnessing above average temperatures this winter season, with December and February being the hottest since 1901. Several research and studies have. been warning of the increasing heat stress due to global warming.
“These weather activities have started a bit early in the season. Usually, pre-Monsoon activities commence during the second half of March. Also, rainfall activities during this season are confined to early morning or later afternoons, but such prolonged spells are rare. This season, the abnormal temperatures have triggered multiple weather systems across several parts of the country. There is already a trough which is running through central parts. It will get more marked with a Western Disturbance which would start affecting the region by March 12. This is a clear example of what kind of climate impacts can be expected with global warming. As the global mean temperatures continue to rise, we would see more of such weather activities at frequent intervals on account of increasing heat stress,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
Growth of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly doubling CO2, is related to the rise in global temperature estimated at an average of 1.5 °C. An increase in the greenhouse gases in pre-monsoon season may deal with excess heat and humidity with uncomfortable conditions throughout the day and night.
“Climate change and global warming are known to have significant impacts on the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and heatwaves. The warmer temperatures resulting from global warming can cause more evaporation, leading to more moisture in the air and heavier rainfall events. Furthermore, climate change can contribute to the formation of localised weather systems, such as thunderstorms and hailstorms, through the increased energy and moisture in the atmosphere. These weather systems can cause significant damage to crops, resulting in economic losses for farmers and food shortages for communities. Therefore, it is essential to take actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce our carbon footprint to prevent further global warming and its associated consequences. This includes implementing sustainable practices in agriculture, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and investing in renewable energy sources,” said Anjal Prakash, Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and IPCC Author.
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