Karnataka assembly elections: PM’s appeal, Cong’s survival & JD(S)’s relevance at stake | Karnataka Election News

NEW DELHI: As Karnataka goes to the polls on May 10, the big question is, will it give a clear mandate? For the past 20 years, three-cornered contests between Congress, BJP and JD(S) have mostly delivered a hung house. Congress broke the jinx once, in 2013, but in 2018 it had to ally with rival JD(S) to form a government that soon fell as some of their MLAs resigned.
This time, BJP and Congress are again desperate to form a stable government on their own, while JD(S) is hoping to get enough seats to play kingmaker.
Here’s how the ground lies six weeks before the state polls:
A triangular fight again
BJP
For the first time, BJP is going to the polls without a chief ministerial candidate. B S Yediyurappa, who retired from elections recently, had been the party’s face in the state from the 1980s. Now, with no mass leader in the state unit, PM Modi is the face of the BJP campaign. He has been trying to blunt anti-incumbency and Congress’ charge of corruption by reminding voters of the benefits of a BJP “double engine” – having the party’s government in the state as well as at the Centre. With an eye on the polls, BJP has hiked quotas for the major caste groups and tried to tap the emotions of Hindu voters by leaning on gods and historical icons. Statues of all sizes have come up across the state.

Congress
In 2018, Congress had put up a good show despite the anti-incumbency, and had a vote share of 38% with 78 seats, although the BJP’s aggressive poaching eventually reduced its assembly strength to 69. This time, Congress hopes to capitalise on the corruption charges and anti-incumbency against BJP. Rahul Gandhi, who led the party’s 2018 campaign, is busy again. The party screening committee managed to announce its first list of 124 candidates without being swayed by its regional bigwigs, AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, legislative party president Siddaramaiah, and KPCC president DK Shivakumar. Their interference in the second list, which comes closer to the filing of nominations, cannot be ruled out though.
JD(S)
While BJP and Congress are making an all-out bid for the state assembly, JD(S) is hoping to play the role of kingmaker by winning 25-35 seats. It had formed coalition governments with both the BJP and the Congress earlier. On his statewide tour – the Pancharatna Yatra – former JD(S) chief minister H D Kumaraswamy drew large audiences even in north Karnataka, although the JD(S) derives its strength from the Vokkaliga belt in the south. However, BJP’s bid to make inroads into the Vokkaliga belt in the Old Mysuru region could help Congress at JD(S)’s expense this time. PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have been telling voters not to vote for JD(S) to avoid a fractured mandate. JD(S) also faces a crisis in Hassan due to a rift between the families of Kumaraswamy and his brother H D Revanna.

Who are the key players?
Narendra Modi & Amit Shah
As always, BJP’s poll outreach revolves around the PM. He has already travelled to the state over half a dozen times in the past three months, and this is just the beginning. Modi has also conducted a couple of roadshows. Besides, home minister Amit Shah has been on the ground ever since he blew the poll bugle in Mandya.
B S Yediyurappa & Basavaraj Bommai
CM Bommai and his predecessor, Yediyurappa, will play a key role in consolidating the 17% Lingayat vote. This is why BJP has elevated a ‘retired’ Yediyurappa, 80, to its parliamentary board. While Bommai has not emerged as a draw in his own right yet, the party does not have another mass leader like Yediyurappa. It is also hoping to make inroads among the Vokkaliggas and certain Dalits groups, besides pursuing a bigger consolidation of Hindu votes.

Siddaramaiah & D K Shivakumar
The key to Congress’ success is the seeming bonhomie between ex-CM Siddaramaiah and KPCC chief D K Shivakumar. Siddaramaiah’s Kuruba community is a key part of the AHINDA (minorities, backwards classes, Dalits) combination he has been courting for decades. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, is expected to get the support of the dominant caste, especially in Old Mysuru region.

Rahul Gandhi & Mallikarjun Kharge
AICC chief Kharge and ex-party chief Rahul Gandhi will be star campaigners for Congress. Priyanka Gandhi will also be part of the cast, but it is doubtful whether Sonia Gandhi would chip in. The Congress hopes Kharge as party chief will change the electoral equation in his home state, especially among the Dalits and in the Kalyana Karnataka region. Rahul is expected to campaign aggressively starting April 5.
H D Deve Gowda & H D Kumaraswamy
The orator Kumaraswamy and the strategist Deve Gowda have been a formidable combination for JD(S). While Kumaraswamy is spearheading the party’s campaign and working on the ground, Deve Gowda, who is now 90 and ailing, is busy strategising for his son. Traditionally, the Vokkaliga community, mostly farmers, has backed Deve Gowda, regardless of the “wave”. Though JD(S)’s base has thinned with the exodus of leaders to other parties, it maintains a stranglehold over the Old Mysuru districts.