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NEW DELHI: The onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed with the IMD on Tuesday predicting its arrival on June 4, three days after the normal date of June 1.
Late arrival of the rain-bearing system in India’s mainland has, however, nothing to do with its further progress or the quantitative and spatial distribution of rainfall. In 2019, monsoon had hit the Kerala coast seven days behind the normal date, but the year recorded above normal rainfall.
The IMD had on April 11 forecast a “normal” monsoon this year, despite evolving El Nino conditions (unusual warming of surface waters in east and central Pacific Ocean) that is generally linked to weak monsoon rains.
IMD officials also said the monsoon was “very likely” to advance into parts of Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal in the next two-three days.
Making its onset forecast for this year, the weather office on Tuesday said, “This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date. The onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of ± 4 days.”
June 1 is considered the normal date of monsoon’s arrival over Kerala, with a standard deviation of about 7 days. This marks the beginning of the four-month rainy season (June-September) in India. The system arrives over Andaman & Nicobar Islands around two weeks earlier.
“The southwest monsoon is very likely to advance into some parts of South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands during the next 2-3 days,” said senior IMD scientist R K Jenamani. The Met department will release its forecast on spatial and month-wise distribution of rainfall during monsoon in the last week of this month.
The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. Past records show that its forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 18 years (2005-22) were proved correct, except in 2015.
The Met department has been using an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days for the purpose of making the monsoon onset forecasts.
Six predictors are used in the models. It includes minimum temperatures over northwest India; pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over south China Sea; lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; mean sea level pressure over subtropical NW Pacific Ocean; and upper tropospheric zonal wind over northeast Indian Ocean.
Watch IMD informs of possible rainfall in Northwest India; scientist says ‘no heatwave warning’
Late arrival of the rain-bearing system in India’s mainland has, however, nothing to do with its further progress or the quantitative and spatial distribution of rainfall. In 2019, monsoon had hit the Kerala coast seven days behind the normal date, but the year recorded above normal rainfall.
The IMD had on April 11 forecast a “normal” monsoon this year, despite evolving El Nino conditions (unusual warming of surface waters in east and central Pacific Ocean) that is generally linked to weak monsoon rains.
IMD officials also said the monsoon was “very likely” to advance into parts of Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal in the next two-three days.
Making its onset forecast for this year, the weather office on Tuesday said, “This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date. The onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of ± 4 days.”
June 1 is considered the normal date of monsoon’s arrival over Kerala, with a standard deviation of about 7 days. This marks the beginning of the four-month rainy season (June-September) in India. The system arrives over Andaman & Nicobar Islands around two weeks earlier.
“The southwest monsoon is very likely to advance into some parts of South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands during the next 2-3 days,” said senior IMD scientist R K Jenamani. The Met department will release its forecast on spatial and month-wise distribution of rainfall during monsoon in the last week of this month.
The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. Past records show that its forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 18 years (2005-22) were proved correct, except in 2015.
The Met department has been using an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days for the purpose of making the monsoon onset forecasts.
Six predictors are used in the models. It includes minimum temperatures over northwest India; pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over south China Sea; lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; mean sea level pressure over subtropical NW Pacific Ocean; and upper tropospheric zonal wind over northeast Indian Ocean.
Watch IMD informs of possible rainfall in Northwest India; scientist says ‘no heatwave warning’
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