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When the tanks rolled in exactly a year ago today, most experts gave Ukraine a week at most. But Ukraine has survived Russia’s war for a year, with Western assistance, and that has turned this regional conflict into a global crisis. Far from being a pariah, Russia has the support of China and several other countries. Sanctions meant to inflict pain on Russia have not hurt it so far, but economies everywhere — from the rich West to poor African nations — are smarting from rising food and energy prices, and sliding growth. What’s worse, with neither side willing to come to the table, the war is far from over. Indrani Bagchi shows how the world has paid a price for Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s ‘spring offensive’ in Ukraine has come early, and Ukraine is arming up for its own. As air raid sirens ring out across Ukraine, the echo from Narendra Modi’s rebuke to Vladimir Putin about this not being an era of war sounds more distant than ever.
Putin’s war in Ukraine, which was expected to last a week at most, is marking its first anniversary and neither Ukraine nor Russia appears ready for the negotiating table. On the ground, the situation is more complex. With the US and Europe on the one side and Russia, China and sundry others on the other, this proxy war is entering a dangerous phase.
Ukraine has surprised with its resilience and fortitude, but with the sobering knowledge that without Western assistance it won’t last the week. It wants a “full victory,” evicting Russia from its territory. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has successfully shamed the West into arming him with his assertion that defeating Russia is in everyone’s interest. The West has obliged in abundant measure with weapons, systems, radars, missiles, drones and intelligence.
Russia must be defeated on the battlefield, say Western leaders, indicating they want this war to go on. As US President Joe Biden wrapped up a quick, albeit provocative, visit to Kyiv on Monday, the US ambassador to the UN said Washington was considering sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine, France is sending AMX-10 armoured vehicles, and Germany Leopard tanks. The escalation is building on more sophisticated weapons for the Ukrainians, and Russia’s refusal to give up captured territory.
What Does Russia Want?
Putin had said on the eve of his invasion that Ukraine did not have “the right” to exist as an independent entity. That remains his defining principle. In recent months he has described the war as the “Third Great Patriotic War”, putting it on the same level as 1812 and 1942. Russians have, by and large, endorsed his operation, and there is a definite sense in the Kremlin that the longer the war, the better Putin’s chances of outlasting the West and staving off internal dissent.
Russia effectively lost the war within the first month. The Kremlin showed ineptitude in handling the invasion, and then had to confine its military goals to keeping eastern Ukraine. Russia is politically isolated in a way it hasn’t been before. The technology sanctions are crippling but we will see their results only in a year or so. Russia’s weapons manufacturing ability has been hit, which has implications for its partners and buyers like India.
According to a UK Defence Intelligence report last week, Russia has lost close to 200,000 men in the war so far. But it has not yet been attacked – Ukraine is not allowed to take the battle inside Russia.
And Russia has had a surprisingly good year under the circumstances. IMF reported its economy is projected to grow 0. 3% in 2023 – a massive jump from the 3. 4% contraction in 2022 – despite Western sanctions. It has found new clients outside the West (read China and India) for its energy and commodities exports and has taken to massive spending to maintain economic activity. This will obviously not sustain, as the economic and tech sanctions kick in. But this ability to weather the storm has added to Russia’s confidence.
The real question now is, at what point will Russia be compelled to resort to the nuclear option? That the escalation ladder literally ends there is not a comforting prospect.
Nobody Gains From The War
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is wondering how to end this war and limit growing global misery. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, declared at the Munich Security Conference last week Beijing would unveil a peace plan on the anniversary of the invasion that would uphold the principle of territorial integrity as well as take into account Russia’s legitimate security interests. On Monday, Wang travelled to Moscow, perhaps to get a Russian buy-in.
But there are other diplomatic parts to this story. A UN General Assembly resolution piloted by European countries is calling for ceasefire and peace, but tilting heavily towards a condemnation of Russia. US Vice-President Kamala Harris accused Russia of “crimesagainst humanity” this week, promising to hold Moscow to account. The space for a negotiated settlement is shrinking rapidly.
As the weeks roll on, the Global South’s growing opposition to the war and the entire Western narrative is becoming clear. Countries comprising much of Asia, Africa and Latin America are as unimpressed by Russia’s actions as they are by Western war evangelism. The war has imposed food, energy and fertiliser crises on them.
At a Commonwealth summit last year, African and Caribbean nations refused to sign on to a “condemn Russia” document, pointing out “Western hypocrisy”, since violating territorial sovereignty has been a common practice among Western countries. Many others have objected to the democracy vs autocracy narrative being pushed by the West. That complicates the global response to the Ukraine war or even the search for a solution.
Major Shifts In Geopolitics
Coming on the back of the Covid pandemic, which created its own geopolitical churn, the war in Ukraine has wrought greater global shifts than is generally appreciated.
Putin’s misguided war has brought Nato to Russia’s doorstep, pushing two of its nonaligned neighbours, Finland and Sweden, into the arms of Nato, a strategic setback for Moscow. Russia’s Arctic ambitions have been checked as seven of the eight Arctic countries will be Nato members. Nato would have a presence in the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic which houses Russia’s Northern Fleet.
Europe is the other big loser. The warm and fuzzy existence it has enjoyed for over 75 years is shattered. It has to build defences, and is back to being fully dependent on the US for security. Europe has turned away from Russian energy and is battling growing inflation and a sharp economic downturn. It is housing over 8 million Ukrainian refugees (and counting), and facing an energy crisis that will only get worse in 2023. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said this week only an additional 23 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG is expected in 2023. As China recovers from its own slowdown, it’s likely to snap up most of that energy, leaving less for Europe.
According to industry figures, the German economy would have lost around 160bn euros or 4% of GDP, in lost value creation by end2023. The story is repeated across Europe. For the time being, the Euro-Atlantic is holding strong. But it is significant that Biden had to stop off in Warsaw to stiffen the spine of Europeans as the war drags on.
To top it all, Russia is now a vengeful, wounded, nuclear-armed neighbour in Europe. It hasn’t even begun exacting revenge. A Wake-Up Call For India This is not India’s war, but it is one of the worst affected countries. The war began just when the Indian economy was shaking off its Covid lethargy. The nervousness in the Indian system was palpable. Energy and fertilisers were major pain points, as was rising inflation, which is a political problem. This explains a couple of things – one, India’s refusal to dump Russia as a partner, and a public embrace of foreign policy based on “interests”.
In the past year, India abstained on 47 votes on Russia across the UN system. It is making tough strategic choices spurred by the unfolding crisis, many of which ironically belie its voting pattern.
India became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian oil and its refineries began churning out petroleum products from Russian oil – for western markets. That softened inflation and gave India a little bit of the breathing room it needed.
Putin’s invasion was an assault on a fundamental principle of territorial integrity, and India’s initial waffling was disappointing. However, India’s diplomatic position evolved, culminating in an open reproach of the war. Separately, India worked with the US and Europe to help reduce tensions with Russia.
Aware of its limitations, India took a more pragmatic approach, but lent a hand to more prosaic, on-the-ground issues. Foreign minister S Jaishankar said India played a role in persuading Russia to honour the grain deal with Ukraine and to lower nuclear dangers at the Zaporizhzhia power plant when it was being bombarded by Russian forces. Along with China, India took a stern view of Russia brandishing nuclear weapons. India was also among those who rescued the Bali G-20 with language in the outcome document that even a reluctant Russia signed on to.
But India also watched its largest defence supplier severely diminished. Russia’s sub-par display on the battlefield had Indian military planners questioning their assumptions about Russia. In the past year, India has put its Atmanirbhar Bharat focus on the defence sector. The plan is to be able to make a lot more in India than before. Dependence on Russia was a vulnerability, it doesn’t want to exchange it for equally wholesale dependence on the West.
On the strategic level, the war undermined one of India’s closely held foreign policy mantras – of keeping a wedge between Russia and China. Russia is now a junior partner to Beijing and that will not change for a long time. In a sense, India’s red flags went up after the February 4 joint statement between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, promising a partnership “without limits”. It has significantly reduced India’s geopolitical manoeuvring ability.
Lastly, India has realised that disruptive and edgy investments in technology are imperative to stay ahead in war. The first lessons came from the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war. The Ukraine war has taught Indian military planners equally deep lessons. As Army chief Gen Manoj Pande declared recently: “Today’s security is…founded on the technological edge over the adversary. ”
The world changed in the last year. We’re just waking up to it.
The writer is CEO, Ananta Centre, India
Russia’s ‘spring offensive’ in Ukraine has come early, and Ukraine is arming up for its own. As air raid sirens ring out across Ukraine, the echo from Narendra Modi’s rebuke to Vladimir Putin about this not being an era of war sounds more distant than ever.
Putin’s war in Ukraine, which was expected to last a week at most, is marking its first anniversary and neither Ukraine nor Russia appears ready for the negotiating table. On the ground, the situation is more complex. With the US and Europe on the one side and Russia, China and sundry others on the other, this proxy war is entering a dangerous phase.
Ukraine has surprised with its resilience and fortitude, but with the sobering knowledge that without Western assistance it won’t last the week. It wants a “full victory,” evicting Russia from its territory. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has successfully shamed the West into arming him with his assertion that defeating Russia is in everyone’s interest. The West has obliged in abundant measure with weapons, systems, radars, missiles, drones and intelligence.
Russia must be defeated on the battlefield, say Western leaders, indicating they want this war to go on. As US President Joe Biden wrapped up a quick, albeit provocative, visit to Kyiv on Monday, the US ambassador to the UN said Washington was considering sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine, France is sending AMX-10 armoured vehicles, and Germany Leopard tanks. The escalation is building on more sophisticated weapons for the Ukrainians, and Russia’s refusal to give up captured territory.
What Does Russia Want?
Putin had said on the eve of his invasion that Ukraine did not have “the right” to exist as an independent entity. That remains his defining principle. In recent months he has described the war as the “Third Great Patriotic War”, putting it on the same level as 1812 and 1942. Russians have, by and large, endorsed his operation, and there is a definite sense in the Kremlin that the longer the war, the better Putin’s chances of outlasting the West and staving off internal dissent.
Russia effectively lost the war within the first month. The Kremlin showed ineptitude in handling the invasion, and then had to confine its military goals to keeping eastern Ukraine. Russia is politically isolated in a way it hasn’t been before. The technology sanctions are crippling but we will see their results only in a year or so. Russia’s weapons manufacturing ability has been hit, which has implications for its partners and buyers like India.
According to a UK Defence Intelligence report last week, Russia has lost close to 200,000 men in the war so far. But it has not yet been attacked – Ukraine is not allowed to take the battle inside Russia.
And Russia has had a surprisingly good year under the circumstances. IMF reported its economy is projected to grow 0. 3% in 2023 – a massive jump from the 3. 4% contraction in 2022 – despite Western sanctions. It has found new clients outside the West (read China and India) for its energy and commodities exports and has taken to massive spending to maintain economic activity. This will obviously not sustain, as the economic and tech sanctions kick in. But this ability to weather the storm has added to Russia’s confidence.
The real question now is, at what point will Russia be compelled to resort to the nuclear option? That the escalation ladder literally ends there is not a comforting prospect.
Nobody Gains From The War
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is wondering how to end this war and limit growing global misery. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, declared at the Munich Security Conference last week Beijing would unveil a peace plan on the anniversary of the invasion that would uphold the principle of territorial integrity as well as take into account Russia’s legitimate security interests. On Monday, Wang travelled to Moscow, perhaps to get a Russian buy-in.
But there are other diplomatic parts to this story. A UN General Assembly resolution piloted by European countries is calling for ceasefire and peace, but tilting heavily towards a condemnation of Russia. US Vice-President Kamala Harris accused Russia of “crimesagainst humanity” this week, promising to hold Moscow to account. The space for a negotiated settlement is shrinking rapidly.
As the weeks roll on, the Global South’s growing opposition to the war and the entire Western narrative is becoming clear. Countries comprising much of Asia, Africa and Latin America are as unimpressed by Russia’s actions as they are by Western war evangelism. The war has imposed food, energy and fertiliser crises on them.
At a Commonwealth summit last year, African and Caribbean nations refused to sign on to a “condemn Russia” document, pointing out “Western hypocrisy”, since violating territorial sovereignty has been a common practice among Western countries. Many others have objected to the democracy vs autocracy narrative being pushed by the West. That complicates the global response to the Ukraine war or even the search for a solution.
Major Shifts In Geopolitics
Coming on the back of the Covid pandemic, which created its own geopolitical churn, the war in Ukraine has wrought greater global shifts than is generally appreciated.
Putin’s misguided war has brought Nato to Russia’s doorstep, pushing two of its nonaligned neighbours, Finland and Sweden, into the arms of Nato, a strategic setback for Moscow. Russia’s Arctic ambitions have been checked as seven of the eight Arctic countries will be Nato members. Nato would have a presence in the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic which houses Russia’s Northern Fleet.
Europe is the other big loser. The warm and fuzzy existence it has enjoyed for over 75 years is shattered. It has to build defences, and is back to being fully dependent on the US for security. Europe has turned away from Russian energy and is battling growing inflation and a sharp economic downturn. It is housing over 8 million Ukrainian refugees (and counting), and facing an energy crisis that will only get worse in 2023. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said this week only an additional 23 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG is expected in 2023. As China recovers from its own slowdown, it’s likely to snap up most of that energy, leaving less for Europe.
According to industry figures, the German economy would have lost around 160bn euros or 4% of GDP, in lost value creation by end2023. The story is repeated across Europe. For the time being, the Euro-Atlantic is holding strong. But it is significant that Biden had to stop off in Warsaw to stiffen the spine of Europeans as the war drags on.
To top it all, Russia is now a vengeful, wounded, nuclear-armed neighbour in Europe. It hasn’t even begun exacting revenge. A Wake-Up Call For India This is not India’s war, but it is one of the worst affected countries. The war began just when the Indian economy was shaking off its Covid lethargy. The nervousness in the Indian system was palpable. Energy and fertilisers were major pain points, as was rising inflation, which is a political problem. This explains a couple of things – one, India’s refusal to dump Russia as a partner, and a public embrace of foreign policy based on “interests”.
In the past year, India abstained on 47 votes on Russia across the UN system. It is making tough strategic choices spurred by the unfolding crisis, many of which ironically belie its voting pattern.
India became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian oil and its refineries began churning out petroleum products from Russian oil – for western markets. That softened inflation and gave India a little bit of the breathing room it needed.
Putin’s invasion was an assault on a fundamental principle of territorial integrity, and India’s initial waffling was disappointing. However, India’s diplomatic position evolved, culminating in an open reproach of the war. Separately, India worked with the US and Europe to help reduce tensions with Russia.
Aware of its limitations, India took a more pragmatic approach, but lent a hand to more prosaic, on-the-ground issues. Foreign minister S Jaishankar said India played a role in persuading Russia to honour the grain deal with Ukraine and to lower nuclear dangers at the Zaporizhzhia power plant when it was being bombarded by Russian forces. Along with China, India took a stern view of Russia brandishing nuclear weapons. India was also among those who rescued the Bali G-20 with language in the outcome document that even a reluctant Russia signed on to.
But India also watched its largest defence supplier severely diminished. Russia’s sub-par display on the battlefield had Indian military planners questioning their assumptions about Russia. In the past year, India has put its Atmanirbhar Bharat focus on the defence sector. The plan is to be able to make a lot more in India than before. Dependence on Russia was a vulnerability, it doesn’t want to exchange it for equally wholesale dependence on the West.
On the strategic level, the war undermined one of India’s closely held foreign policy mantras – of keeping a wedge between Russia and China. Russia is now a junior partner to Beijing and that will not change for a long time. In a sense, India’s red flags went up after the February 4 joint statement between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, promising a partnership “without limits”. It has significantly reduced India’s geopolitical manoeuvring ability.
Lastly, India has realised that disruptive and edgy investments in technology are imperative to stay ahead in war. The first lessons came from the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war. The Ukraine war has taught Indian military planners equally deep lessons. As Army chief Gen Manoj Pande declared recently: “Today’s security is…founded on the technological edge over the adversary. ”
The world changed in the last year. We’re just waking up to it.
The writer is CEO, Ananta Centre, India
#UkraineRussia #war #year #counting #losses
