‘Sudan could be heading towards a civil war’: Why nations like India are anxious to nip the conflict in the bud | India News
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India on Thursday had said the situation in Sudan is “very tense” and it is focusing on ensuring the safety and well-being of the Indian community.
External affairs minister S Jaishankar, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra, Ambassador of India to Sudan B S Mubarak along with the envoys to Egypt and Riyadh participated in the virtual meeting on Friday. Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari and Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R Hari Kumar were also part of the high-level meeting.
Ceasefires ignored
At present, an unspecified number of Indians are said to be stranded in Sudan amid the military and political crisis. Thousands of civilians have fled Sudan’s capital Khartoum after fighting escalated in the region as the forces of two rival generals ignored appeals for an end-of-Ramadan ceasefire.
Two previously declared 24-hour ceasefires had also failed to take hold.
The Central Committee of Sudan Doctors said that as the Id al-Fitr celebrations marking the end of the Muslim Ramadan month of fasting began, “several areas of Khartoum were bombed” and reported “shelling and clashes” for the sixth straight night.
‘In touch with Indian citizens’
On April 20, Jaishankar had met UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York to discuss the developments in Sudan and underscored the need for “successful diplomacy”. “We know that the UN itself has a large presence in Sudan. What is needed is diplomacy, successful diplomacy, because it’s only diplomacy which can create the ground situation for the safety and welfare of the people out there,” Jaishankar said after his meeting with Guterres.
“Unless there is a ceasefire and unless there are corridors, it is not safe for people to really come out. The UN is doing its bit talking to everybody. We of course have obviously very strong interest in the matter because so many Indians are there,” said Jaishankar.
The foreign minister added that the Centre is in continuous touch with its citizens stuck in Sudan. “Our team in Delhi is in continuous touch with the Indians in Sudan, advising them, saying we know it’s very difficult for everybody but keep calm and don’t take unnecessary risk,” the EAM said.
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“Our mission in Khartoum is in contact the Indian community there through formal and informal channels. Our embassy has issued several advisories,” added MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi.
Danger of prolonged conflict
Fighting has been raging between forces loyal to Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), for nearly two years but reached a peak a week ago.
The conflict has put the nation at risk of collapse and could have consequences far beyond its borders, especially Chad and South Sudan.
Both sides have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, mineral riches and other resources that could insulate them from sanctions. It’s a recipe for the kind of prolonged conflict that has devastated other countries in the Middle East and Africa, from Lebanon and Syria to Libya and Ethiopia.
The fighting, which began as Sudan attempted to transition to democracy, already has killed hundreds of people and left millions trapped in urban areas.
The conflict began in 2021, after al-Burhan and Daglo jointly carried out a military coup and derailed a transition to democracy that had begun after protesters in 2019 helped force the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir. In recent months, negotiations were underway for a return to the democratic transition.
The victor of the latest fighting is likely to be Sudan’s next president, with the loser facing exile, arrest or death.
Civil war
A long-running civil war or partition of the Arab and African country into rival fiefdoms are also possible.
“Unless it is swiftly ended, the conflict will become a multi-level game with regional and some international actors pursuing their interests, using money, arms supplies and possibly their own troops or proxies,” said Alex De Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University.
International intervention and interests
“The longer (the fighting) drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention,” said Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group.
Arab Gulf countries have looked to the Horn of Africa in recent years as they have sought to project power across the region.
The United Arab Emirates, a rising military power that has expanded its presence across the Middle East and East Africa, has close ties to the Rapid Support Forces, which sent thousands of fighters to aid the UAE and Saudi Arabia in their war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Russia, meanwhile, has long harbored plans to build a naval base capable of hosting up to 300 troops and four ships in Port Sudan, on a crucial Red Sea trading route for energy shipments to Europe.
The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit with close ties to the Kremlin, has made inroads across Africa in recent years and has been operating in Sudan since 2017. The US and the European Union have imposed sanctions on two Wagner-linked gold mining firms in Sudan accused of smuggling.
(With inputs from agencies)
Watch Heavy gunfire in Sudan after brief ceasefire
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