Karnataka poll results in 10 charts: Congress registers resounding win as BJP falls to anti-incumbency | India News

NEW DELHI: The Congress secured a resounding victory in Karnataka on Saturday winning 136 of the total 224 seats, the BJP came a distant second with 65 seats and the JD(S) won 19 seats.

Pollsters had predicted that Congress would have an edge in the state but that there would likely be a fractured mandate. Congress, however, proved the exit polls wrong and comfortably shot past the halfway mark of 113 seats by noon.

This is the largest win for the Congress in the state since 1989, when it won 178 seats.

While the BJP has said it will introspect on what went wrong and vowed to be a “responsible opposition in the state”, a reinvigorated Congress declared that Karnataka was just the beginning and a “stepping stone to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections”.
Here is a look at the Karnataka poll results in 10 charts:
Seat tally
As has been the anti-incumbency trend in the state for the past 40 years, the fortunes of the parties vary wildly in every assembly election.

In 2018, the BJP had emerged as the single-largest party with 108 seats while the Congress won 80 seats and the JD(S) 37. With no clear winner, the state saw much political turmoil that ended after the BJP wrested power from the ruling Congress-JD(S) alliance in 2019.
The latest elections have given a clear mandate: 136 seats for Congress, 65 to the BJP and 19 to the JD(S).
Vote share stable
While the number of seats won by the parties have swung sharply, the vote percentage has remained somewhat stable.
In 2023, the BJP won 35.7% of the votes, compared to 36.4% in 2018.

Congress’s vote percentage rose by over 5 percentage points, up from 38.1% in 2018 to 43.2% this time around.
The JD(S) predictably saw the biggest dip in popularity, down from 18.3% in 2018 to 13.3% in 2023.
Though the vote percentage increase was slight, the Congress was able to translate the uptick into more wins.
JD(S) in limbo
H D Kumaraswamy’s party, which was looking to be in the kingmaker position once again, is finding itself on the sidelines now with the Congress receiving an overwhelming mandate in Karnataka.
In 2018, the JD(S) had won 37 seats and was able to cobble an alliance with the Congress to briefly form the government.

This time around, the JD(S)’s tally has been nearly halved to 20 and it mainly managed to hang on to its urban seats. It remains to be seen whether the JD(S) decides to join hands with the Congress or sits in the opposition next to the BJP.
Lingayats back Congress
The largest vote bloc in the state backed the Congress in the 2023 elections as opposed to the BJP, which was relying heavily on the community to push it past the halfway mark.

Out of the 70 constituencies that are dominated by the Lingayat community, the Congress improved its tally from 38 in 2018 to 44 in 2023. The BJP lost 18 of the seats — down from 38 in 2018 to 20 in 2023. The JD(S) lost 5 seats, down from 10 in 2018 to 5 in 2023.
Vokkaligas shift from JD(S)
The Vokkaliga community is the second-most important vote bloc in the state after the Lingayats. It has traditionally supported either the JD(S) or the Congress.

In the 2018 elections, out of the 44 Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies, 24 went to the JD(S), 11 to Congress and 8 to BJP.
This time, however, the JD(S) was unable to strike a chord with the community and the Congress was able to win 29 of the seats while the JD(S) won 10 and the BJP 4.
Tough fight in Greater Bengaluru
The 32 constituencies that make up the Greater Bengaluru region saw a neck-and neck fight between the Congress and the BJP in the 2023 elections.

Eventually, the Congress managed to win 18 seats while the BJP secured 14 seats.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP had managed to win 11 seats while the Congress won 15.
Coastal Karnataka follows trend
Going with the larger sentiments in the state, some of the 21 constituencies that make up coastal Karnataka turned their back on the BJP.

In 2018, the BJP had managed to win 18 of the 21 seats. This time around it won 12. The Congress improved its tally from 3 in 2018 to 8 in 2023.
Seat shift
With the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities deciding not to vote along traditional lines, many seats in Karnataka have seen a switch in power.

While the Congress gained 77 seats and retained 59, the BJP gained 22 and retained 42. Meanwhile, the JD(S) gained 12 seats and retained 8.
Muslim dominated seats
The 34 Muslim-dominated seats in the state rejected the JD(S) this time around, choosing to either go with the BJP or the Congress.

In the last assembly elections, the BJP and the C0ngress had won 15 seats each while the JD(S) had won 3. In 2023, the JD(S) failed to open its innings while the Congress improved its tally to 21 and the BJP won 13.
Changing political map
The loss of the southern state is a big blow to the BJP’s morale. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gone on a whirlwind tour of the state, holding roadshows and rallies — all for nought.
The BJP’s reliance on the ‘Modi wave’ may have cost it dearly as voters seemed to respond to other parties that raised local issues during campaigning.

With southern India rejecting the BJP, the party is now in power in 10 states and part of an alliance in 6 other states.
With the latest setback, the BJP now rules over 43% of India’s total area, which is home to around 47% of the population.
Had the BJP retained the southern state, the figures would have been 49% and 52%, respectively.