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BEIJING: China’s aviation fuel consumption is likely to expand 13.1% this year, extending a robust recovery last year on passenger travel, but the country’s crude oil imports may stay largely flat, according to forecasts by a research arm of state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
Aviation fuel consumption may hit 39.3 million metric tons this year, and crude oil imports are expected to rise 0.1% to 565 million metric tons, or about 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) CNPC’s Economic & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual outlook on Wednesday.
Kerosene demand has been widely expected to grow further this year, as China’s international air travel demand gradually recovers in the post-COVID travel market. International traffic remained depressed, at 53% of pre-COVID levels at the end of 2023, LSEG data showed.
Wider economic pressures have weighed on demand for diesel, a key fuel for trucks in the logistics and construction sectors, as CNPC expected diesel use to fall 2.8% this year to 196 million metric tons.
Gasoline consumption, however, may grow 1.3% to 165.1 million metric tons, CNPC said.
Analysts have forecast China’s gasoline demand will likely peak between 2024 and 2025, as a rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) continues at breakneck speed. EV sales are expected to account for 40% of about 23 million total auto sales this year.
National crude oil throughput is seen growing 1.8% to a record 752 million tons, or 15.04 million bpd, with average refinery utilisation rate pegged at 78.3%, off slightly from last year’s 78.9%, CNPC added.
Aviation fuel consumption may hit 39.3 million metric tons this year, and crude oil imports are expected to rise 0.1% to 565 million metric tons, or about 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) CNPC’s Economic & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual outlook on Wednesday.
Kerosene demand has been widely expected to grow further this year, as China’s international air travel demand gradually recovers in the post-COVID travel market. International traffic remained depressed, at 53% of pre-COVID levels at the end of 2023, LSEG data showed.
Wider economic pressures have weighed on demand for diesel, a key fuel for trucks in the logistics and construction sectors, as CNPC expected diesel use to fall 2.8% this year to 196 million metric tons.
Gasoline consumption, however, may grow 1.3% to 165.1 million metric tons, CNPC said.
Analysts have forecast China’s gasoline demand will likely peak between 2024 and 2025, as a rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) continues at breakneck speed. EV sales are expected to account for 40% of about 23 million total auto sales this year.
National crude oil throughput is seen growing 1.8% to a record 752 million tons, or 15.04 million bpd, with average refinery utilisation rate pegged at 78.3%, off slightly from last year’s 78.9%, CNPC added.
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