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Avdiivka, once a coal hub, has become emblematic of a protracted war where neither side has achieved a decisive victory for over a year. Avdiivka has been under relentless assault by Russian forces attempting to encircle and capture the town.
The population has dwindled dramatically to approximately 1,350 residents, a stark contrast to the 30,000 inhabitants before the onset of the war.
Significant portions of the town, located near Donetsk – the regional capital now under Russian control – are held by Russian troops. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain control over a stretch of territory about eight kilometers wide, extending from the city towards the northwest.
Avdiivka, a small city in the Donetsk region, is now being closely watched to see if it could become the next Bakhmut – a reference to the intense and prolonged fighting that has occurred in that city.
Current situation in Avdiivka
As of now, Avdiivka remains under Ukrainian control, but it has been under constant threat from separatist forces and their Russian backers. The city has already experienced significant fighting, and its proximity to the front lines makes it a likely target for further escalation. The humanitarian situation in Avdiivka is also concerning, with residents facing shortages of essential supplies and the constant threat of shelling.
Strategic importance of Avdiivka
Avdiivka holds significant strategic value in the ongoing conflict. It is located just north of Donetsk, a major city and a stronghold of pro-Russian separatists since the conflict began in 2014. The city is home to one of Europe’s largest coke-producing plants, which is crucial for the steel industry, an important sector in Ukraine’s economy. Control over Avdiivka would not only provide a tactical advantage but also an economic one.
‘This is where I come from’
Retiree Oleksandre Makarov, 65, does not want to leave the town. A former employee from the coking plant, he lives in a nine-storey block in the Khimik district.
He lives off humanitarian aid, and has a wood stove to keep warm and cook.
The situation has gotten worse since October 10, he said, when the town started to come under heavy bombardment.
But, he said he wants to stay, “because this is where I come from”.
“I studied in Donetsk… I was sent to work in Avdiivka,” Makarov said. “Where am I going to find another flat? With what money?”
The battle for Bakhmut as a precedent
The comparison with Bakhmut is not without basis. Bakhmut, formerly known as Artemivsk, has seen some of the heaviest fighting in the Donbas region. The battle for Bakhmut has been characterized by intense urban warfare, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. The city’s infrastructure has been severely damaged, making it a symbol of the destruction wrought by the conflict. If Avdiivka were to experience similar levels of conflict, it could face comparable devastation.
Potential for escalation
The potential for Avdiivka to become a focal point like Bakhmut is high. Russian and separatist forces have shown a willingness to engage in prolonged urban battles, despite the high cost in terms of human lives and infrastructure. For Ukraine, holding Avdiivka is equally important, both strategically and symbolically, as losing it to Russian-backed forces could be a significant setback.
Similarities between Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
*Both towns are located on the front line of the conflict, and have been subjected to constant shelling, airstrikes, and ground assaults by Russian forces.
*Both towns have a significant civilian population, which has suffered from the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. Many residents have fled or been displaced, while others have remained and faced shortages of water, electricity, food, and medical supplies.
*Both towns have a strong Ukrainian military presence, which has resisted the Russian attacks and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. The Ukrainian forces have also received support from NATO and the EU, in the form of weapons, training, and humanitarian aid.
Some of the differences are:
Avdiivka is larger and more urbanized than Bakhmut, which makes it more difficult to defend and more vulnerable to damage.
Avdiivka also has a more diverse and mixed population, which may include some pro-Russian or separatist sympathizers.
Bakhmut was surrounded by Russian-controlled territory, which made it isolated and cut off from the rest of Ukraine. Avdiivka, on the other hand, is still connected to the Ukrainian-controlled territory, which allows for the supply and reinforcement of the defenders.
Bakhmut was a symbolic and psychological target for Russia, as it was the birthplace of the separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko, who was killed by a Ukrainian drone strike in 2023. Avdiivka, on the other hand, may not have the same emotional or ideological value for Russia, but rather a strategic and economic one.
International implications
The situation in Avdiivka also has broader implications. The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has drawn international attention and involvement, with Western countries providing support to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. An escalation in Avdiivka could lead to further internationalization of the conflict, potentially drawing more direct involvement from other countries.
(With inputs from agencies)
The population has dwindled dramatically to approximately 1,350 residents, a stark contrast to the 30,000 inhabitants before the onset of the war.
Significant portions of the town, located near Donetsk – the regional capital now under Russian control – are held by Russian troops. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain control over a stretch of territory about eight kilometers wide, extending from the city towards the northwest.
Avdiivka, a small city in the Donetsk region, is now being closely watched to see if it could become the next Bakhmut – a reference to the intense and prolonged fighting that has occurred in that city.
Current situation in Avdiivka
As of now, Avdiivka remains under Ukrainian control, but it has been under constant threat from separatist forces and their Russian backers. The city has already experienced significant fighting, and its proximity to the front lines makes it a likely target for further escalation. The humanitarian situation in Avdiivka is also concerning, with residents facing shortages of essential supplies and the constant threat of shelling.
Strategic importance of Avdiivka
Avdiivka holds significant strategic value in the ongoing conflict. It is located just north of Donetsk, a major city and a stronghold of pro-Russian separatists since the conflict began in 2014. The city is home to one of Europe’s largest coke-producing plants, which is crucial for the steel industry, an important sector in Ukraine’s economy. Control over Avdiivka would not only provide a tactical advantage but also an economic one.
‘This is where I come from’
Retiree Oleksandre Makarov, 65, does not want to leave the town. A former employee from the coking plant, he lives in a nine-storey block in the Khimik district.
He lives off humanitarian aid, and has a wood stove to keep warm and cook.
The situation has gotten worse since October 10, he said, when the town started to come under heavy bombardment.
But, he said he wants to stay, “because this is where I come from”.
“I studied in Donetsk… I was sent to work in Avdiivka,” Makarov said. “Where am I going to find another flat? With what money?”
The battle for Bakhmut as a precedent
The comparison with Bakhmut is not without basis. Bakhmut, formerly known as Artemivsk, has seen some of the heaviest fighting in the Donbas region. The battle for Bakhmut has been characterized by intense urban warfare, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. The city’s infrastructure has been severely damaged, making it a symbol of the destruction wrought by the conflict. If Avdiivka were to experience similar levels of conflict, it could face comparable devastation.
Potential for escalation
The potential for Avdiivka to become a focal point like Bakhmut is high. Russian and separatist forces have shown a willingness to engage in prolonged urban battles, despite the high cost in terms of human lives and infrastructure. For Ukraine, holding Avdiivka is equally important, both strategically and symbolically, as losing it to Russian-backed forces could be a significant setback.
Similarities between Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
*Both towns are located on the front line of the conflict, and have been subjected to constant shelling, airstrikes, and ground assaults by Russian forces.
*Both towns have a significant civilian population, which has suffered from the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. Many residents have fled or been displaced, while others have remained and faced shortages of water, electricity, food, and medical supplies.
*Both towns have a strong Ukrainian military presence, which has resisted the Russian attacks and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. The Ukrainian forces have also received support from NATO and the EU, in the form of weapons, training, and humanitarian aid.
Some of the differences are:
Avdiivka is larger and more urbanized than Bakhmut, which makes it more difficult to defend and more vulnerable to damage.
Avdiivka also has a more diverse and mixed population, which may include some pro-Russian or separatist sympathizers.
Bakhmut was surrounded by Russian-controlled territory, which made it isolated and cut off from the rest of Ukraine. Avdiivka, on the other hand, is still connected to the Ukrainian-controlled territory, which allows for the supply and reinforcement of the defenders.
Bakhmut was a symbolic and psychological target for Russia, as it was the birthplace of the separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko, who was killed by a Ukrainian drone strike in 2023. Avdiivka, on the other hand, may not have the same emotional or ideological value for Russia, but rather a strategic and economic one.
International implications
The situation in Avdiivka also has broader implications. The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has drawn international attention and involvement, with Western countries providing support to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. An escalation in Avdiivka could lead to further internationalization of the conflict, potentially drawing more direct involvement from other countries.
(With inputs from agencies)
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