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BENGALURU: WTO deputy director general Anabel Gonzalez sounds more upbeat on the prospects of global trade, pointing to improvements in the supply chain and opening up of China, which until recently was following a zero Covid policy.
“We are currently working on an annual forecast. Last October, we lowered our 2023 outlook to 1% growth. However, there are some things that have happened with China lifting the Covid restrictions being the most notable. In April we will see how it looks, it may be revised a little upwards. Our quarterly goods barometer, which we issued in November, showed that trade had begun to grow at the end of 2022 and in early 2023 with some key indices showing cooling of business sentiment, weaker global import demand,” she told TOI, on the sidelines of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Gonzalez, a former trade minister of Costa Rica, also said in 2022, trade is estimated to have expanded by around 3.5% despite the war in Ukraine and the China lockdown and all the shocks. “Although exports from Russia and Ukraine remained suppressed, other global suppliers came on stream. This was very important because acute shortages or extreme increase in prices that we had feared did not actually materialise. This shows the resilience of the world trading system.”
Yet, she is worried about the future of the global trading system, maintaining that there is greater fragmentation, rising protectionism with even the WTO dispute system not being fully functional. Besides, she maintains that WTO can help address global challenges such as climate change and also manage trade tensions.
Asked if carbon border tax proposed by the European Union is to deal with climate change or as a barrier to trade, as viewed by India, she said: “WTO members look at it from different perspectives. Right now, there should be a very open discussions about the objectives and the details of implementation. Fostering that dialogue is important from WTO point of view.” She also said members have begun work on the next meeting of WTO, scheduled for 2024.
“We are currently working on an annual forecast. Last October, we lowered our 2023 outlook to 1% growth. However, there are some things that have happened with China lifting the Covid restrictions being the most notable. In April we will see how it looks, it may be revised a little upwards. Our quarterly goods barometer, which we issued in November, showed that trade had begun to grow at the end of 2022 and in early 2023 with some key indices showing cooling of business sentiment, weaker global import demand,” she told TOI, on the sidelines of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Gonzalez, a former trade minister of Costa Rica, also said in 2022, trade is estimated to have expanded by around 3.5% despite the war in Ukraine and the China lockdown and all the shocks. “Although exports from Russia and Ukraine remained suppressed, other global suppliers came on stream. This was very important because acute shortages or extreme increase in prices that we had feared did not actually materialise. This shows the resilience of the world trading system.”
Yet, she is worried about the future of the global trading system, maintaining that there is greater fragmentation, rising protectionism with even the WTO dispute system not being fully functional. Besides, she maintains that WTO can help address global challenges such as climate change and also manage trade tensions.
Asked if carbon border tax proposed by the European Union is to deal with climate change or as a barrier to trade, as viewed by India, she said: “WTO members look at it from different perspectives. Right now, there should be a very open discussions about the objectives and the details of implementation. Fostering that dialogue is important from WTO point of view.” She also said members have begun work on the next meeting of WTO, scheduled for 2024.
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