Economy to grow 6-6.8% next year, recovery complete: Annual Economic Survey

The annual Economic Survey for 2022-23 projected the economy to grow by somewhere between 6% and 6.8%, depending on global factors in 2023-24, with 6.5% a baseline expectation.
While admitting that the world economy faces considerable uncertainty that could affect India’s growth, the survey struck a confident note, mirroring the sunny posture of the government, which plans to showcase the recovery on its watch as one of the main pitches for the 2024 polls.

It maintained that recovery from the multiple hits sustained due to the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent policy-induced inflationary pressures globally is “complete” in India, which has weathered the storm better than most and is poised to resume the pre-Covid growth trajectory.
A significant part of the credit for this, the survey said, should go to the rapid and extensive vaccination drive of the government. “The near-universal coverage of vaccination in India overseen by the government was the single most important reason that brought people out to the streets to re-experience the ‘bazaar’,” it observed while adding that contact-based service providers like restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, cinemas and tourist destinations were thus able to run up a thriving business, contributing to the revival of consumer sentiments. The boost in consumer sentiments allowed private consumption to “seamlessly” replace export stimuli as the leading driver of growth at a time when the global slowdown was making its impact felt on India’s exports too.
While the Centre had to move away from the path of fiscal consolidation in recent years to focus on reviving growth, the survey said the planned return to fiscal discipline would translate into a stimulus by lowering interest rates.